The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that a steady rise in Atlantic Basin oil exports to Asia over five years will affect crude oil shipping almost as much as the shift of Russian crude exports.
The intergovernmental organization predicts that oil and product trade patterns will continue to grow over the medium term. The Atlantic Basin (except Russia) will experience a surplus as production increases in the United States, Brazil and Guyana while refinery activity decreases in tandem with a decrease in transport demand, especially in the European Union.
Asia’s continued demand growth is projected to significantly outpace increased Middle East crude supply by 2028, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
IAEA predicts that Asian oil and gas import demand will increase 4.8 percent to 28 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2028 as the Atlantic Basin’s oil surplus plays a key role in meeting Asian demand growth over the forecast horizon.
As Russia continues to lose supply, the balance of Atlantic Basin oil production shifts from about 4.5 million barrels per day in 2022 to about 4.8 million barrels per day, according to the IEA. This shift reflects both a continued increase in crude production and a decrease in refinery runs.
This shift reduces Atlantic Basin buyers’ share of net world oil exports to about 25 percent over the forecast horizon and increases the concentration of buyers east of Suez.
By 2028, China will represent one-third of global traded volumes, while India will account for another 17%.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand is expected to reach its peak by the end of the decade, as high prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels by countries and industries.
In its mid-term report, the IEA predicts that global demand for oil will increase by 6% from 2022 to 2028, driven by strong demand from petrochemical industries and aviation. However, while overall oil demand is projected to increase through 2028, it is expected to slow down towards the end of that period and reach its peak.
