According to industry experts, the outlook for air cargo demand in 2024 is expected to be subdued. While there may be some growth in certain regions and sectors, overall demand is not projected to see significant increases. This is due to a variety of factors, including trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and shifts in supply chain strategies. As such, air cargo companies may need to prepare for a challenging market environment and focus on operational efficiency and cost management in order to remain competitive. While the outlook may be uncertain, those who are able to adapt and innovate may still find opportunities for success in the air cargo industry.
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| Source : Aircargonews |
Air Cargo Demand Outlook for 2024
Air cargo executives gathered at the Tiaca Executive Summit event have expressed their expectations for air cargo demand in 2024. The general consensus among these industry experts is that demand will remain flat or only slightly increase compared to this year's levels.
Rogier Blocq, the director of product development and customer support at data provider WorldACD, presented a relatively positive outlook for air cargo demand in 2024. He referenced a study conducted by WorldACD, which analyzed quarterly figures from 2010 to 2019. The study revealed that year-on-year increases in the first and second quarters tended to be better than those in the final quarter of the year. Based on the latest projections from WorldACD, demand is expected to increase by 1% in the final quarter of this year, with October showing a decrease of 1%, November showing an increase of 1%, and December showing an increase of 2%. Looking ahead, WorldACD anticipates a 2% year-on-year increase in demand for the first quarter of 2024 and a 3% increase for the second quarter.
While there is some optimism regarding the pickup in demand for 2024, Blocq also emphasized the difficulty in predicting demand due to the current market uncertainties. These uncertainties include geopolitical risks, wars, and threats of conflicts, which could potentially jeopardize the projected growth.
Expectations from Industry Experts
During a panel discussion at the event, Glyn Hughes, the director general of Tiaca, asked speakers about their expectations for the upcoming year. Turhan Özen, the chief cargo officer of Turkish Airlines, expressed optimism that demand would pick up by the fourth quarter of next year at the latest. However, he acknowledged that geopolitical risks and conflicts could hinder this growth. Özen believed that once concerns about inflation are resolved, with a focus shifting towards growth by institutions like the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, air cargo would react positively. He anticipated this positive reaction to occur no later than September next year.
Yossi Shoukroun, the chief executive of Challenge Group, had a more cautious outlook due to the global economy and geopolitical situation. He expressed concerns that these factors would not change significantly and might even escalate. Shoukroun highlighted the potential impact on cargo capacity as passenger services are reduced in response to lower demand caused by instability and higher fuel prices. He also mentioned that extreme weather conditions could affect passenger demand. These developments could benefit freighter operators as they would have more opportunities to utilize available cargo space.
Marco Tafuro, the airfreight director at UPS Europe Region, shared a similar perspective. While he anticipated growth towards the end of next year, he believed that the first half would continue to mirror this year's performance. Geert Aerts, the chief cargo & real estate officer of Brussels Airport Company, pointed out that recent geopolitical situations, particularly in the Middle East, have set back air cargo's recovery by a year. Aerts expected demand in 2024 to remain flat or only slightly increase compared to this year. He suggested that a clearer picture of next year's expectations would emerge at the end of the fourth quarter.
Wilson Kwong, the chief executive of Hong Kong handler Hactl, highlighted that his airport would benefit from the full opening of its three-runway system next year. While he acknowledged the volatility expected in the coming year due to various events, he predicted a small growth compared to this year.
In conclusion, air cargo executives foresee a relatively stagnant air cargo demand in 2024, with some potential for slight growth. The projections take into account historical trends and market uncertainties. Geopolitical risks, conflicts, and economic factors are among the key variables that could impact future demand. The industry will closely monitor these developments and adjust expectations accordingly.
-(This article is sourced from Aircargonews.net and curated by Thetransporteronline24)
